Publication of Outlook 2021, issuance calendar first quarter and DDA advisors

News item | 11-12-2020 | 12:28

Borrowing requirement

The preliminary borrowing requirement for the DSTA in 2021 is estimated to amount to € 95.6 bn. This estimate is surrounded by uncertainties concerning the development of the COVID-19 crisis. The DSTA will publish updates during 2021 as soon as new information regarding the funding need becomes available through regular Quarterly Outlooks and press releases.

Estimated borrowing requirement for 2021 (€ bn)
Capital market redemptions 2021	16.5
Money market ultimo 2020 (excl. cash collateral)	41.1
Cash deficit 2021*	37.9
Total	95.6

* A cash deficit is shown as a positive number because it increases the total borrowing requirement.

Note: Rounding differences explain the residual € 0.1 bn.

The first update of the borrowing requirement will be communicated in the beginning of January to reflect the cash realisations of 2020 which affect the net money market ultimo 2020 estimate.

Distribution between capital and money market issuances

The DSTA continues to ensure liquidity across the curve by creating a balance between the call on the capital market and the money market in 2021. The DSTA has begun to gradually shift funding from the money market to the capital market and will continue to do so in 2021 and the coming years. This will contribute to the DSTA’s goal to lengthen the average maturity of the debt and swap portfolio towards eight years in the coming years.

Given the current borrowing requirement of € 95.6 bn, the DSTA foresees issuance of DSLs on the capital market for a total of € 50 bn in nominal terms. As is normal practice, fluctuations in the funding need will be absorbed by the call on the money market. Only in a scenario in which the funding need turns out significantly lower than currently estimated, the call on the capital market might be reduced. In case the funding need turns out higher than € 95.6 bn, the DSTA could increase the call on both the money- and capital market.

Capital market issuance in 2021

The aforementioned nominal call on the capital market of € 50 bn will consist of the following issuances:

• Launch of a new 8-year bond, the DSL 15 January 2029, via the MTS platform. For 2021, the DSTA foresees an indicative amount of around € 10 bn in this bond;
• Launch of a new 10-year benchmark DSL (15 July 2031) in February or March, via DDA; issuance volume of at least € 12 bn in 2021;
• Launch of a new 15-year DSL, via DDA; minimum issuance volume of approximately € 6 bn in 2021;
• At least one more tap auction in the DSL 15 January 2027 in 2021; target volume of € 1.5 – € 2.5 bn;
• One tap auction in 2021 of the Green DSL 15 January 2040; target volume of € 1.5 - € 2.5 bn;
• A minimum of two tap auctions in 2021 of the DSL 15 January 2052, for a total indicative amount of € 3 bn;
• DSL issuances of € 15 bn ‘to be determined’ in order to respond to market demand and promote liquidity across the curve.
   

DSL issuance in 2021 (€ bn)	Indicative amounts
New 8-year DSL	10
New 10-year DSL	12
New 15-year DSL	6
Reopening DSL 2027	2
Reopening Green DSL 2040	2
Reopening DSL 2052	3
To be determined	15
Total	50

Traditionally, DSL auctions can be scheduled on the second and the fourth Tuesday of the month. In the first quarter of 2021 all of the auction windows will be used. The DSTA will start with the reopening of the DSL 2052, the DSTA’s on-the-run 30-year bond, on 12 January for a target volume of € 1 bn to € 2 bn. On 26 January a tap auction for an existing DSL is planned. The exact DSL to be tapped will be decided upon consultation with our Primary Dealers and will be announced on the Wednesday prior to 26 January. The new 10-year DSL will be launched by means of a DDA in February or March. Depending on the timing of the launch of the 10-year DSL, the DSTA will use the other auction windows to reopen the on-the-run DSL 2027, to tap the 20-year Green bond and hold another tap auction for an existing DSL.

DSL-issuance calendar first quarter 2021 (€ bn)

Auction Date	Details	Target volume
12 January	Reopening 30-year bond: DSL 15 January 2052	1 – 2
26 January	Tap of an existing DSL	To be announced
February/March*	New 10-year bond: DSL 15 July 2031	4 – 6
February/March*	Reopening 20-year Green bond: DSL 15 January 2040	1.5 – 2.5
February/March*	Reopening 7-year bond: DSL 15 January 2027	1.5 – 2.5
February/March*	Tap of an existing DSL	To be announced

* Depending on the timing of the launch of the 10-year DSL.

Note: announcement of auction details will be in due time, at the latest on the Wednesday prior to the auction date (t-6).

Money market issuance in 2021

As usual, the DSTA will have regular money market issuances through its DTC programmes. The schedule for 2021 follows the same pattern as in previous years, where auction dates typically contain both a shorter-dated programme and a longer-dated programme. Auctions are held on the first and third Monday of the month. Similar to previous years, there will be no DTC-line maturing in December 2021 as this appears to be a less attractive programme for many market participants. Moreover, to better meet investor demand at month end, DTC-programmes do not mature on the last business day of the month, but on the second to last business day.
 

DTC-issuance calendar first quarter 2021

Auction date	Settlement date	Shorter-dated  programme	Longer-dated programme
4 January	6 January	29 April 2021	29 June 2021
18 January	20 January	29 April 2021	29 June 2021
1 February	3 February	28 May 2021	29 July 2021
15 February	17 February	28 May 2021	29 July 2021
1 March	3 March	29 June 2021	30 Augusts 2021
15 March	17 March	29 June 2021	30 August 2021

Note: announcement of all auction details is on the Wednesday prior to the auction (t-5).

Advisors for upcoming DDAs

The DSTA has appointed Citi, Nordea and Barclays as its advisors for the DDA of the new 10-year bond. Jefferies, ABN AMRO and Nomura are appointed as advisors for the DDA of the new 15-year bond. The advisors of the DDAs are selected based on the