Quarterly outlook and issuance calendar third quarter 2020
Today the DSTA published the Quarterly outlook and the issuance calendar for the third quarter of 2020.
The Quarterly outlook presents the latest developments concerning the Dutch economy, the government finances and the financing of the State debt. This Quarterly outlook also includes an update of the funding need, an overview of the DSL and DTC issuances in the third quarter and a ranking table for Primary Dealer performances in the first half of the year.
Funding need
Based on new budgetary figures presented today by the Dutch government, the funding need now stands at € 138.8 bn. Relative to the previous estimate given at the end of April (€ 135.8 bn) the funding need is only slightly higher. The difference is due to the fact that the cash deficit has now been forecasted at € 95.1 bn, while previously an EMU-deficit of € 92 bn was used as a proxy for the cash deficit.
|
Estimated funding need 2020 |
€ bn |
|
Capital market redemptions 2020 |
29.9 |
|
Money market ultimo 2019 (excl. cash collateral) |
14.3 |
|
Increase in cash collateral (until end of May) |
-0.4 |
|
Cash deficit 2020 |
95.1 |
|
Buy-backs DSLs (until end of May) |
- |
|
Total |
138.8 |
Call on capital and money market
Fluctuations in the funding need will for a large part be absorbed by changing the call on the money market. Regarding the call on the capital market, the DSTA has decided to revise the minimum committed amount upwards to € 40 bn from the previous figure of € 35 bn announced in April.
However, the DSTA may well end up issuing more than € 40 bn depending on how the funding need and market conditions unfold.
DSL issuance calendar third quarter 2020
Three auctions have been scheduled for Dutch State Loans (DSLs) in the third quarter. The first auction will be held on Tuesday 14 July and concerns the 7-year DSL launched earlier this year. The other DSL auctions will be held on 8 September and 22 September. DSLs to be auctioned on those dates are still to be determined and will depend on the auction date for a new 30-year bond. The time window for the launch of the new 30-year bond will be September/October.
|
Auction date |
Details |
Target volume (€ bn) |
|
14 July |
Reopening DSL 0.00% 15 January 2027 |
1.5 – 3.0 |
|
8 September |
New 30-year DSL / reopening of existing DSL |
To be determined |
|
22 September |
New 30-year DSL / reopening of existing DSL |
To be determined |
Note: Announcement of auction details will be announced in due time, at the latest on the Wednesday prior to the auction date (t-6).
DTC issuance calendar third quarter 2020
Auctions for Dutch Treasury Certificates (DTCs) will be held every Monday in the third quarter, with the exception of 31 August on which no auction is scheduled for now. The DSTA is committed to maintain a liquid curve for maturities up to 12 months. 3- and 9-month treasury bills are issued on every first and third Monday of the month, while 6-and 12-month bills are issued on every second and fourth Monday of the month.
|
Auction date |
Settlement date |
Shorter-dated programme |
Longer-dated programme |
|
06/07/2020 |
08/07/2020 |
29/09/2020 |
29/04/2021 |
|
13/07/2020 |
15/07/2020 |
28/01/2021 |
29/06/2021 |
|
20/07/2020 |
22/07/2020 |
29/10/2020 |
29/04/2021 |
|
27/07/2020 |
29/07/2020 |
28/01/2021 |
30/07/2021 |
|
03/08/2020 |
05/08/2020 |
29/10/2020 |
28/05/2021 |
|
10/08/2020 |
12/08/2020 |
25/02/2021 |
30/07/2021 |
|
17/08/2020 |
19/08/2020 |
27/11/2020 |
28/05/2021 |
|
24/08/2020 |
26/08/2020 |
25/02/2021 |
28/08/2021 |
|
07/09/2020 |
09/09/2020 |
27/11/2020 |
29/06/2021 |
|
14/09/2020 |
16/09/2020 |
30/03/2021 |
28/08/2021 |
|
21/09/2020 |
23/09/2020 |
28/01/2021 |
29/06/2021 |
|
28/09/2020 |
30/09/2020 |
30/03/2021 |
29/09/2021 |
Note: announcement of all auction details is on the Wednesday prior to the auction date (t-5).