Publication of Outlook 2019 and issuance calendar first quarter 2019
Today, the DSTA presented its Outlook 2019. A key feature of this Outlook is the funding plan for next year.
Momentarily, the funding need for 2019 is estimated at € 43.3 bn. The estimated funding need consists of capital market redemptions, the expected outstanding volume of the money market at the end of 2018 and the expected cash balance for 2019.
|
Borrowing requirement in 2019 (€ bn) |
|
|
Capital market redemptions in 2019 |
29.6 |
|
Outstanding money market instruments ultimo 2018 |
20.9 |
|
Expected cash balance 2019 (-=surplus) |
-7.2 |
|
Total |
43.3 |
The DSTA intends to roughly balance the call on the capital and money market in 2019 to ensure liquidity in both markets. The DSTA is committed to issue Dutch State Loans (DSLs) on the capital market within a range of € 19 bn to 23 bn. At present, the indicated range for the money market at year-end is also € 19 bn to € 23 bn. If the funding need turns out significantly lower (higher) than has now been estimated the actual size of the money market at year-end could end up below (above) this range.
|
Funding 2019 (€ bn) |
|
|
Capital market |
19 - 23 |
|
Money market ultimo 2019 |
19 - 23 |
|
Total |
43.3 |
To fulfil its planned call on the capital market the DSTA will issue a new 10-year DSL - the DSL 15 July 2029 - for approximately € 12 bn. The launch of this 10-year DSL will by means of a DDA. Moreover, as announced by the Minister of Finance on 31 October 2018, the DSTA will issue a green bond in 2019. The green bond will be issued by means of a DDA at the long end of the curve, having a maturity of at least 15 years. The DSTA is committed to issue approximately € 4-6 bn in this green DSL in 2019. Within a few years after the initial issuance, the outstanding volume will be increased to a benchmark size of approximately € 10 bn, as is regular practice for longer-dated DSLs. Finally, the DSTA will hold off-the-run tap auctions throughout 2019 for a total of approximately € 3-5 bn. The DSTA has the option to re-open off-the-run DSLs in all maturity buckets depending on market circumstances and investor demand, irrespective of the already existing outstanding volumes.
|
Capital market issuance in 2019 |
Indicative amounts (€ bn) |
|
New 10-year DSL (2029 maturity) |
≈ 12 |
|
Green bond (maturity ≥ 15 years) |
≈ 4 – 6 |
|
Reopening off-the-run DSLs |
≈ 3 – 5 |
|
Total |
≈ 19 - 23 |
As usual, the borrowing requirement and the funding plan will be updated during the year whenever new information becomes available. In the beginning of January the first update will be published. More information is available in the Outlook 2019.
Green bond
The green DSL, of which the launch is expected in the second quarter of 2019, is targeted at institutional investors that have a green focus. This includes many Dutch pension funds and insurers that so far have been large investors in green bonds of other European sovereigns. The proceeds of the green DSL that can be allocated to green expenditures are related to renewable energy, energy efficiency, clean transportation and climate change adaptation.
Issuance calendar first quarter 2019
Today the DSTA also published the DSL and Dutch Treasury Certificates (DTC) issuance calendars for the first quarter of 2019. The first quarter will start with the reopening of a DSL with a maturity of between 3 and 7 years for a target volume of € 1.25 bn to € 1.75 bn. The new 10-year DSL will be launched by means of a DDA in February or March. The exact timing, target volume and further details of the DDA will be announced in due course.
|
Auction date |
Details |
Target volume (€ bn) |
|
8 January |
Reopening off-the-run DSL in 3 to 7-year maturity segment* |
1.25 - 1.75 |
|
February/March** |
New 10-year bond: DSL 15 July 2029 |
To be announced |
* The precise maturity of the off-the-run DSL will be announced on the Wednesday prior to the auction date (t-6).
** DDA-date, target volume and other details will be announced at a later stage
The calendar for DTC issuance in 2019 follows the same basic pattern as in 2017 and 2018. On the first Monday of the month a new longer dated DTC-programme will be issued. This will again be tapped on the third Monday of the month, together with a shorter-dated existing line.
|
Auction date |
Settlement date |
Shorter-dated programme |
Longer-dated programme |
|
7 January |
9 January |
27 June 2019 |
|
|
21 January |
23 January |
29 March 2019 |
27 June 2019 |
|
4 February |
6 February |
31 July 2019 |
|
|
18 February |
20 February |
30 April 2019 |
31 July 2019 |
|
4 March |
6 March |
30 August 2019 |
|
|
18 March |
20 March |
31 May 2019 |
30 August 2019 |
Note: announcement of all auction details is at the Wednesday prior to the auction (t-5).