Publication of Outlook 2025, issuance calendar first quarter and advisors
Today the DSTA presents the Outlook for 2025 including the funding plan for 2025 and the issuance calendar for the first quarter. The DSTA also announces the advisors for the Dutch Direct Auctions (DDA) in 2025.
The full Outlook 2025, containing updates on the economic, budgetary and climate outlook and its policy framework can be found on the DSTA’s website.
Funding plan
The preliminary funding plan in 2025 is currently estimated to amount to approximately € 105.0 billion. However, this estimate is surrounded by a high degree of uncertainty due to several factors in the government finances. Historically, this has led to a lower funding realization at the end of the year compared with the announcement in the Outlook.
|
Estimated borrowing requirement for 2025 |
Amount |
|
Capital market redemptions 2025 |
19.9 |
|
Money market ultimo 2024 (excl. cash collateral) |
36.1 |
|
Cash deficit 2025* |
49.0** |
|
Total |
105.0 |
* A cash deficit is shown as a positive number because it increases the total borrowing requirement.
** The loan facility to TenneT in 2025 comprises € 14.2 billion of this amount
At the beginning of January 2025, we will communicate a first update of the borrowing requirement to reflect the net money market ultimo 2024.
Issuances in 2025 will continue to contribute to the DSTA’s goal to maintain the average maturity of the debt, swap and cash portfolio at a minimum of eight years in 2025.
Capital market issuance in 2025
The DSTA foresees issuances of DSLs on the capital market for an amount of around € 40 billion. Downward revisions in the funding plan are historically more likely, given the way the estimate is constructed. Given the inherent uncertainty in the overall funding during the year, we use the money market in a flexible way to accommodate for this uncertainty. This ensures stability in the communicated call on the capital market.
The call on the capital market for 2025 will consist of the following issuances:
- Launch of a new 10-year benchmark bond (the DSL 15 July 2035) by means of a Dutch Direct Auction (DDA);
- Launch of a new benchmark bond by means of a DDA with a maturity of at least 15 years.
- Reopening of one of the existing green bonds with maturity date 15 January 2040 or 15 January 2044.
- Reopening of the DSL 2054 by a tap auction.
- “To be determined” DSL issuances for an amount of € 17 - 19 billion in order to respond to market demand and promote liquidity.
Moreover, the DSTA could also decide to issue more than the indicated volumes in the benchmark DSLs that are to be launched or re-opened in 2025.
|
DSL issuance |
Indicative amounts (€ billion) |
|
New 10-year DSL July 2035 (via DDA) Reopening of the 10-year DSL 2035 |
5 7 |
|
New 15+ year DSL (via DDA) |
5 |
|
Reopening of a Green DSL |
2 - 4 |
|
Reopening DSL January 2054 |
1.5 - 2 |
|
DSLs – to be determined |
17 - 19 |
|
Total DSL funding |
40 |
Traditionally, DSL auctions are scheduled on the second and fourth Tuesday of the month. In the first quarter of 2025, five auction dates will be used. The DSTA will start the year with a tap auction of the DSL 2.00% 2054 on 14 January with a target volume of € 1.5 – 2 billion. The new 10-year benchmark (DSL 15 July 2035) will be issued in February or March by means of a DDA. The exact timing of the launch will be decided upon in consultation with the DDA-advisors appointed for this DSL and the other Primary Dealers. All other dates in the first quarter will be filled with DSLs to be determined at a later stage. Target volume and other details will be announced no later than the Wednesday prior to an auction. All other issuance dates in this period will be used to reopen existing DSLs.
DSL-issuance calendar first quarter 2025
|
Auction date |
Details |
Target volume (€ bn) |
|
|
14 January 2025 |
Reopening DSL 15 January 2054 |
1.5 - 2 |
|
|
28 January 2025 |
Tap of an existing DSL* |
To be determined |
|
|
The following bonds are scheduled to be auctioned in February and March of 2025 |
|||
|
New 10-year bond: DSL 15 July 2035 |
To be determined |
||
|
Tap of an existing DSL* |
To be determined |
||
|
Tap of an existing DSL* |
To be determined |
||
* Target volume and other details will be announced at a later stage, but no later than the Wednesday prior to the auction date (t-6).
Money market issuance in 2025
The DSTA will regularly issue Dutch Treasury Certificates (DTC) on the money market. Auction dates typically contain both a shorter-dated programme and a longer-dated programme. Auctions are held on the first and third Monday of the month. Moreover, to better meet investor demand at month’s end, DTC programmes mature at the second-to-last business day of the month (rather than on the last business day).
DTC-issuance calendar first quarter 2025
|
Auction date* |
Shorter-dated programme |
Longer-dated programme |
|
6 January 2025 |
28 March 2025 |
27 June 2025 |
|
20 January 2025 |
29 April 2025 |
27 June 2025 |
|
3 February 2025 |
28 May 2025 |
30 July 2025 |
|
17 February 2025 |
29 April 2025 |
30 July 2025 |
|
3 March 2025 |
27 June 2025 |
28 August 2025 |
|
17 March 2025 |
28 May 2025 |
28 August 2025 |
Note: announcement of all auction details is on the Wednesday prior to the auction (t-5).
* Settlement date is on the Wednesday after the auction (t+2).
Advisors
The DSTA has appointed ABN AMRO, Barclays, Bank of America, Citigroup, HSBC and Jefferies as its advisors for the Dutch Direct Auctions in the upcoming calendar year. The advisors are selected based on their Primary Dealer ranking of 2024.
Press Inquiries
For inquiries about the Outlook and the funding plan for 2025, please contact Thaisa Cijntje, spokesperson for the DSTA.
+31 6 46 83 63 43 / Per e-mail: t.m.cijntje@minfin.nl