Quarterly Outlook and issuance calendar fourth quarter 2021
Today the DSTA publishes the Quarterly Outlook and the issuance calendar for the fourth quarter of 2021.
The Quarterly Outlook presents the latest developments concerning the Dutch economy, the government finances, and the financing of the State debt. This Quarterly Outlook also includes an update of the funding need and an overview of the DSL and DTC issuances in the fourth quarter. In addition, this Quarterly Outlook includes a “save the date” for the DSTA’s annual Outlook event in December which will be held on Thursday 16 December 2021.
Funding need
On 21 September 2021 the Dutch government presented the 2022 Budget Memorandum (Miljoenennota), including an overall update of the budgetary and economic outlook. Based on the new figures, the funding need of the Dutch State now stands at € 112.1 billion for 2021. The Dutch State estimates its cash deficit for 2021 at € 53.6 billion. This amount is slightly lower than the previous estimate of € 56.4 billion. The lower cash deficit results in a similar decrease in the total estimated funding need for 2021.
|
Estimated funding need 2021 |
Amount (€ bn) |
|
Capital market redemptions 2021 |
16.5 |
|
Money market ultimo 2020 (excl cash collateral) |
40.7 |
|
Decrease in cash collateral |
1.3 |
|
Cash deficit 2021 |
53.6 |
|
Total |
112.1 |
In order to fulfil this estimated funding need, the call on the capital markets in 2021 will amount to around € 60 billion. This estimated amount is in line with previous communications.
At this moment an amount of € 41.3 billion has been funded on the capital markets, which is approximately 69% of the expected call on the capital markets. The ultimate funding need however remains surrounded by a high degree of uncertainty and could still turn out significantly lower. The DSTA will use financing on the money markets to absorb fluctuations in the ultimate funding need.
An estimate of the funding need for 2022 will be provided in December in the Outlook 2022. The DSTA is committed to communicate with the market as quickly and transparently as possible.
DSL issuance calendar fourth quarter 2021
Five auctions for Dutch State Loans (DSLs) are scheduled in the fourth quarter of 2021. In this final quarter, the three DSLs launched earlier this year will be tapped at least once. On 26 October 2021, the DSL 15 July 2031 will be tapped. On 9 November 2021, the DSL 15 January 2038 is scheduled to be reopened. Both tap auctions will have a targeted volume of € 1.5 to 2.5 billion per auction. On 23 November 2021, the new 8-years DSL, which will be launched on 28 September, will be tapped for an amount of € 2.0 to 3.0 billion. In addition, two existing DSLs are expected to be reopened. The exact DSLs to be reopened will be decided in consultation with the Primary Dealers.
DSL auctions traditionally take place on the second and fourth Tuesday of the month. The only exception is the auction on 7 December 2021, which will be brought forward one week due to the end of year period. For the same reason, no auction is scheduled on the fourth Tuesday of December.
In case of unforeseen circumstances, the DSTA reserves the right to add an auction or, alternatively, alter or remove an auction from the issuance calendar. Any such change is announced in a timely manner through a press release.
|
Auction date* |
Details |
Target volume (€ bn) |
|
12 October 2021 |
Reopening of existing DSL |
To be determined |
|
26 October 2021 |
DSL 15 July 2031 |
1.5 – 2.5 |
|
9 November 2021 |
DSL 15 January 2038 |
1.5 – 2.5 |
|
23 November 2021 |
DSL 15 January 2029 |
2.0 – 3.0 |
|
7 December 2021 |
Reopening of existing DSL |
To be determined |
* Further details on the auction, including maturity and target volume, will be announced at the latest on the Wednesday prior to the auction date (t-6).
DTC issuance calendar fourth quarter 2021
The Dutch Treasury Certificate (DTC) issuance calendar is similar to that in the previous quarters of 2021. As customary, the three and six month programmes will be auctioned following the same auction pattern. The table below provides the scheduled DTC issuances for the fourth quarter of 2021.
Auctions are held on the first and third Monday of each month. The only exception is the auction on 13 December 2021, which will be brought forward by one week due to the end of year period. The size of the programmes will be determined based on the funding need and, if necessary, after consultation with the Primary Dealers. Auction details will be announced on the Wednesday prior to the relevant auction. The DSTA remains committed to providing sufficient liquidity in all DTC-programmes.
In case of unforeseen circumstances, the DSTA reserves the right to add a DTC programme or, alternatively, alter or remove it from the issuance calendar. Any such change will be announced in a timely manner through a press release.
|
Auction date* |
Settlement date |
Shorter-dated programme |
Longer-dated programme |
|
4 October 2021 |
6 October 2021 |
28-1-2022 |
30-3-2022 |
|
18 October 2021 |
20 October 2021 |
28-1-2022 |
30-3-2022 |
|
1 November 2021 |
3 November 2021 |
25-2-2022 |
28-4-2022 |
|
15 November 2021 |
17 November 2021 |
25-2-2022 |
28-4-2022 |
|
6 December 2021 |
8 December 2021 |
30-3-2022 |
30-5-2022 |
|
13 December 2021 |
15 December 2021 |
30-3-2022 |
30-5-2022 |
* Auction details will be announced on Wednesday prior to the auction (t-5).