Quarterly Outlook and issuance calendars third quarter 2021

Today the DSTA publishes the Quarterly Outlook and the issuance calendars for the third quarter of 2021.

The Quarterly Outlook presents the latest developments concerning the Dutch economy, the government finances and the financing of the State debt. This Quarterly Outlook also includes an update of the funding need, an overview of the DSL and DTC issuances in the third quarter and a ranking table for Primary Dealer performances in the first half of the year.

Funding need

On 28 May 2021 the Dutch government published its Spring Notice (Voorjaarsnota) and on 22 June 2021 the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (Centraal Planbureau, CPB) published its June forecast. Based on these budgetary projections, the Dutch State estimates its cash deficit for 2021 at € 56.4 billion, which is higher than the previous estimate of € 52.7 billion. The higher cash deficit results in a similar increase in the total funding need, which now amounts to € 114.8 billion.

Estimated funding need 2021

Amount (€ bn)

Capital market redemptions 2021

16.5

Money market ultimo 2020 (excl. cash collateral)

40.7

Decrease in cash collateral (until end of May)

1.2

Cash deficit 2021

56.4

Total

114.8

In order to fulfill this estimated funding need, the expected call on the capital market in 2021 increases to around € 60 billion from € 55 billion. At the same time, the estimated funding need still remains surrounded by a high degree of uncertainty. As a result, the ultimate funding need could still turn out significantly lower.

Consequently, the DSTA will not at this moment increase the expected money market financing for 2021. Therefore, in the third quarter of 2021, the DSTA will maintain a similar DTC-auction pattern as in the first half of the year.

DSL issuance calendar third quarter 2021

Four auctions for Dutch State Loans (DSLs) are scheduled in the third quarter of 2021. The new 8-year DSL will be launched using the MTS platform (also used for tap auctions). This auction will take place on either 14 or 28 September. The exact date will be communicated after consultation with the Primary Dealers. In addition, three existing DSLs will be reopened. The exact DSLs to be reopened will also be decided after consultation with the Primary Dealers.

DSL auctions traditionally take place on the second and fourth Tuesday of the month. Due to the summer season no DSL-auctions are scheduled between mid-July and the second to last week of August. Instead, an additional auction is scheduled on the fifth Tuesday of August.

In case of unforeseen circumstances, the DSTA reserves the right to add an auction or, alternatively, alter or remove an auction from the issuance calendar. Any such change is announced in a timely manner through a press release.

Auction date*

Details

Target volume (€ bn)

13 July

Reopening of existing DSL

To be determined

31 August**

Reopening of existing DSL

To be determined

14 or 28 September

DSL 2029

3.0 – 5.0

14 or 28 September

Reopening of existing DSL

To be determined

* Further details on the auction, including maturity and target volume, will be announced at the latest on the Wednesday prior to the auction date (t-6).

** Auction on the fifth Tuesday of August due to the summer season.

DTC issuance calendar third quarter 2021

The table below provides the scheduled Dutch Treasury Certificate (DTC) issuances for the third quarter of 2021. Regular 3- and 6-month programs will be auctioned following the same auction pattern as in the first half of this year. However, to better meet investor demand, in line with previous years there will be no DTC-program maturing in December.

Auctions are held on the first and third Monday of each month. This calendar includes six DTC-auctions. The size of the programs will be determined based on the funding need and if necessary after consultation with the Primary Dealers. Auction details will be announced on the Wednesday prior to the relevant auction. The DSTA remains committed to providing sufficient liquidity in all DTC-programs.

In case of unforeseen circumstances, the DSTA reserves the right to add a DTC program or, alternatively, alter or remove it from the issuance calendar. Any such change is announced in a timely manner through a press release.

Auction date*

Settlement date

Shorter-dated program

Longer-dated program**

5 July

7 July

28/10/2021

19 July

21 July

28/10/2021

2 August

4 August

29/11/2021

28/01/2022

16 August

18 August

29/11/2021

28/01/2022

6 September

8 September

25/02/2022

20 September

22 September

25/02/2022

* Auction details will be announced on Wednesday prior to the auction (t-5).