Quarterly outlook second quarter 2021
Today the DSTA has published the Quarterly outlook for the second quarter of 2021.
The quarterly outlook presents the latest developments concerning the Dutch economy, the budgetary situation and the financing of the State debt.
Funding need
On Wednesday 31 March the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (Centraal Planbureau) published its annual Central Economic Plan (CEP) economic projections. Based on these recent projections, the funding need for the Dutch State in 2021 is now estimated at € 110.6 bn.
This estimate implies an increase of € 15.5 bn compared to the previous estimate of the funding need published by DSTA on 6 January 2021 (€ 95.1 bn). The main reason for this development is the increased cash deficit due to the budgetary impact of the new and prolonged support programs that help to mitigate the persisting COVID-19 crisis.
|
Estimated funding need 2021 |
(in € bn) |
|
Capital market redemptions 2021 |
16.5 |
|
Money market ultimo 2020 (excl. cash collateral) |
40.7 |
|
Decrease in cash collateral (until end of March) |
0.6 |
|
Cash deficit |
52.7 |
|
Total |
110.6 |
Note: Rounding differences explain the residual € 0.1 bn.
Call on capital and money market
Due to the higher funding need, the DSTA has decided to raise its expected call on the capital market in 2021 to at least € 55 bn from € 50 bn. Up until March, the total amount raised on the capital markets this year is €17.2 bn (approximately 31% of the expected call on the capital markets).
The ultimate funding need for 2021 is still surrounded by uncertainties, most importantly as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. Consequently, the expected call on the capital and money markets may also change. The following scheduled update will be provided in the Quarterly Outlook for the third quarter of 2021, to be published at the end of June. Should there be an update available prior to this moment, the DSTA will provide this as and when available. The DSTA is committed to communicating with the market as transparently as possible.
DSL and DTC issuance calendar second quarter 2021
The issuance calendars for the scheduled auctions of Dutch State Loans (DSLs) and Dutch Treasury Certificates (DTCs) have been published on 19 March 2021. These issuance calendars are also included in the quarterly outlook as published today. No changes have been made from the versions previously published.
In case of unforeseen changes in the funding need the DSTA reserves the right to add an auction or, alternatively, alter or remove an auction from the issuance calendar. If changes need to be made to the issuance calendar this will be announced in a timely manner through a press release.