Publication of Outlook 2017 and issuance calendar first quarter 2017

News item | 15-12-2016 | 17:02

Momentarily, the funding need for 2017 is estimated at € 59.4 billion. The estimated funding need consists of capital market redemptions, the expected outstanding volume of the money market at the end of 2016 and the expected cash balance for 2017.

Borrowing requirement in 2017 [1] (in € bn)
Capital market redemptions in 2017	42.5
Outstanding money market instruments ultimate 2016	18.9
Cash balance 2017 (-=surplus)	-2.0
Total	59.4

The borrowing requirement for 2017 is surrounded by a lot of uncertainty. This uncertainty is mainly visible with regards to the cash balance. Tax income and government expenses can influence the cash balance. Furthermore, possible further sales of tranches of ABN Amro or ASR can influence the cash balance in a positive way.

Given these circumstances, a bit more flexibility in the distribution between the call on the capital market and the money market is deemed desirable. Consequently, the DSTA decided to continue a target range for the call on the capital market in 2017. This target range will be € 30 to € 35 bn. Given the funding need the call on the money market will average between € 24.4 bn and € 29.4 bn. The money market acts as a primary buffer for accommodating changes in the funding need and the target range for the capital market will provide extra flexibility.

Funding requirement 2017 (in € bn.)
Capital market	30 - 35
Money market ultimate 2016	24.4 – 29.4
Total	59.4

To fulfil its call on the capital market the DSTA will issue two new Dutch State Loans (DSLs): a new 7-year DSL and a new 10-year DSL. The 10-year DSL will reach a minimum outstanding volume of € 15 bn. in 2017. The 7-year DSL will reach an outstanding amount of between € 5 bn. and € 7.5 bn. in 2017, and will be increased towards at least € 15 bn. in 2018. Besides, the 5-year DSL which was launched last year will be reopened to reach an outstanding volume of at least € 15 bn. Finally, the DSTA will reopen one or more longer dated off-the-run bonds for a total amount of between € 3 bn. and € 5.5 bn. The focus of these off-the-runs is on DSLs which mature in 2033 and 2047.

Capital market issuance in 2017	Indicative amounts (in € bn.)
New 10-year DSL (2027)	15
New 7-year DSL (2024)	5 – 7.5
On-the-run 5-year DSL (2022)	7
Reopening longer dated off-the-run DSLs	3 – 5.5
Total	30 - 35

As usual, the borrowing requirement and the funding plan will be updated during the year whenever new information becomes available. More information is available in the Outlook 2017.

Issuance calendar first quarter 2017

Together with the Outlook 2017, the DSTA today published the DSL and DTC issuance calendars for the first quarter of 2017.

The DSTA will start its capital market issuance in 2017 with the reopening of the DSL 15 January 2047. The second auctioning moment in January will be used for a tap of the DSL 15 January 2022. Furthermore, in February the new 10-year DSL will be launched via a Dutch Direct Auction (DDA). The exact date and details for the DDA will be announced later. On 14 March, DSL 15 January 2022 will be reopened again.

Month	Date	Details	Target volume (€ bn.)
January	10	Reopening DSL 15 January 2047	0.75 – 1.25
January	24	Reopening DSL 15 January 2022	2 - 3
February	The date for the DDA will be announced in due time	New 10-year DSL 15 July 2027	The target volume will be announced in due time
March	14	Reopening DSL 15 January 2022	2 - 3

Note: Announcement of all auction details is on the Wednesday prior to the auction date (t-6).

The DTC calendar follows the usual pattern with auctions held on the first and third Monday of every month. One change was made this year to the DTC program; during every first Monday of the month only a 6-month DTC programme will be issued and on every third Monday both a 3-month and a 6-month DTC programme will be issued. Exception to this is January when both maturities are issued.

Auction date	Settlement date	3-month programme	6-month programme
2-1-2017	4-1-2017	31-3-2017	30-6-2017
16-1-2017	18-1-2017	31-3-2017	30-6-2017
6-2-2017	8-2-2017		31-7-2017
20-2-2017	22-2-2017	28-4-2017	31-7-2017
6-3-2017	8-3-2017		31-8-2017
20-3-2017	22-3-2017	31-5-2017	31-8-2017

Note: Shaded fields indicate new programmes. Announcement of all auction details is at the Wednesday prior to the auction (t-5).

[1] The expected funding need for 2017 is lower in comparison to the estimate in the latest Quarterly outlook. This is mainly the result of a change in the presentation regarding the effect cash collateral received by the DSTA on the borrowing requirement. More details on this change can be found in the Outlook 2017.