Economic Outlook
1
Dutch growth picks up again
Driven by an increase in consumption expenditure by the central government and households, the Dutch economy grew moderately at 0.9% over 2024. This marks the end of a period of stagnant gross domestic product (GDP) growth due to the decrease in purchasing power and declining international trade in 2023. High real wage growth in 2024 increased the spending power for Dutch households. A part of this income growth was saved by households as consumption grew less then household income. At the same time, both investments and exports experienced a quarter-on-quarter growth, despite business sentiment remaining negative in most sectors. Moderate economic growth is projected to continue during the coming years. The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (Centraal Planbureau, CPB) projects a GDP increase of 1.9% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, based on a continuation of the dynamics observed in 2024. Consumption expenditure by households and the central government will continue to be the main drivers of economic growth. Purchasing power will increase as wage growth outpaces inflation; in turn, the poverty rate is expected to decline from 3.5% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, and then to 2.9% in 2026. The continued wage growth will contribute to an inflation rate which is expected to remain above 2%.
Positively adjusted projections for the medium term
Developments on the labour market have led to a rise in projected GDP growth in the medium term. In particular, the supply side is projected to increase due to greater participation by young people and seniors near the retirement age. Simultaneously, unemployment figures have been adjusted downwards. However, due to persistently lower productivity growth, the CPB has also adjusted the structural productivity growth downwards. Because higher economic growth leads to higher tax revenues while having less effect on expenditure, these developments are projected to positively influence public finances
Geopolitical developments: A driver of economic uncertainty
Global uncertainties in the areas of trade, international cooperation and conflicts may hamper global growth. The possibility of the introduction of additional tariffs or of economic deregulation can negatively affect the competitive position of Europe and the Netherlands.
| Key economic figures for the Netherlands (annual change in %) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025* | 2026* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Household consumption | 0.8 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Government consumption | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Capital formation (including changes in stock) | -9.1 | -2.5 | 3.2 | 4.8 |
| Exports of goods and services | -0.5 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Imports of goods and services | -1.8 | -0.2 | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| Unemployment rate (% of labour force) | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.0 |
| Inflation (HICP) | 4.1 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 |